Séminaires LEMMA

"Beliefs about own future choices"

Elias Bouacida (Paris VIII)

Elias est un théoricien de la décision et économiste expérimental travaillant sur la modélisation et la compréhension du comportement humain.

Monday, 20 January 2026, 11h-12h

Lemma - 4 rue Blaise Desgoffe, 75006 Paris. Salle Maurice Desplas

Abstract : This paper studies individuals' perceived stochasticity in their own future choices. We elicit subjects' beliefs about how they will decide in 26 risky lottery choice problems and subsequently observe their realized choices. To further characterize individual-level choice stochasticity, we repeat 15 of these problems six times for each subject. We find that 89% of subjects report non-degenerate beliefs about their future choices, which arise in 69% of all decision problems. These beliefs are predictive of realized behavior and match the stochastic choice distributions revealed through repeated decisions, suggesting that individuals have meaningful insight into the probabilistic nature of their own future choices. Beliefs elicited as intended choices display systematic behavioral biases: they exhibit a pronounced common ratio effect and, to a lesser extent, a reverse common consequence effect. We provide evidence that these patterns largely reflect underlying preferences for such effects, although stochasticity remains a contributing factor (Loomes, 2005; McGranaghan et al., 2024). Finally, we show that the prevalence of non-degenerate beliefs cannot be accounted for by choice noise, indifference, or random preferences. While quasi-concavity in probabilities explains behavior for a subset of subjects, it does not account for the majority, highlighting the role of other mechanisms - most notably preference uncertainty - in shaping stochastic choice and beliefs about one's own decisions.

"Prison Conditions and Recidivism: Evidence from France"

Benjamin Monnery (Paris Nanterre)

Benjamin is Associate Professor of Economics at Paris Nanterre. His research interests lie in law and economics, economics of crime, political economy, and microeconometrics. 

Monday, 13 January 2026, 11h-12h

Lemma - 4 rue Blaise Desgoffe, 75006 Paris. Salle Maurice Desplas