Séminaires LEMMA

Nathalie Bolh - University of Vermont

Abstract:
We build a theoretical model to explain the complex patterns of income and obesity, accounting for changes in behavior related to exercise. We combine the theory of time allocation with the theory of conspicuous leisure in a growth model, assuming that consumption expenditures connected to exercise time are conspicuous, and that conspicuous behavior changes with economic development. As a result, as economies develop, we show that there is a growing wedge between optimal exercise and consumption choices made by individuals with different income levels. We show that this pattern is connected to a dynamic Kuznets curve linking body weight to economic development over time, and a static Kuznets curve linking different steady state levels of income per worker to body weight. Thus, our model helps explain the rise and slowdown in obesity prevalence in the USA, as well as the positive correlation between obesity and income per worker in developing countries, and the negative correlation between obesity and income per worker in industrialized countries. We supplement our theoretical results with numerical simulations of the static and dynamic obesity Kuznets curves for the USA. We show that while exercise choices have contributed to a slowdown in the rise in obesity prevalence, there is to this date no dynamic Kuznets curve pattern for obesity in the USA. By contrast, we find the existence of a static Kuznets curve: the steady state level of average body weight increases with the per worker stock of capital up to a level of 186.5 pounds, corresponding to a capital stock 25% higher than the current steady state US capital stock, and decreases thereafter. We discuss policy implications of our findings.

Anne-Laure Samson - Université de Lille, LEM

Lemma - 4 rue Blaise Desgoffe, 75006 Paris. Salle Maurice Desplas

Mardi 12 avril 2022 - 11 h / 12 h

Abstract:
We evaluate the causal effects of a vaccination campaign against Hepatitis B (HB) in France, targeting students in middle and high schools. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we find a strong positive (expected) impact of the campaign on children vaccination rates against HB. Our estimates also reveal a large (unexpected) spillover effect of the campaign: treated individuals are 13 pp. less likely to get their catch-up vaccination against the measles, mumps and rubella, than non treated individuals. As measles is extremely contagious and dangerous, this result, that may be driven by a salience effect on HB, questions the net effect of the campaign.

Abstract:
Free trade agreements (FTAs) are characterized by rules of origin (RoO) and cumulation. These rules define which intermediate goods allow a final product to qualify for preferential access. Recent literature shows that RoO led to a reduction in imports of intermediate goods from third countries relative to partners. We take one step further and consider the impact of the Pan-European Cumulation System (PECS), which provided the possibility of cumulating stages of production across European Union’s FTA peripheral partners. 
We find that PECS reshaped regional supply chains by increasing imports of intermediates among these peripheral countries relative to both the European Union (EU) and third countries. We also find that PECS reinforced their value chain links with third countries relative to the EU, contributing to multilateralizing regionalism.